Lisbon’s next fighter jet was supposed to be a done deal.
Now, a quiet rethink in Portugal is rattling both Washington and Paris.
Portugal’s search for a replacement to its ageing F‑16 fleet has turned into a high-stakes tug-of-war between the US-made F‑35 and France’s Rafale, with fresh signals suggesting the French jet may have surged into the lead after a remarkable political and strategic about-face.
Portugal’s unexpected rethink on the F‑35
For most of the past year, the contest looked settled. The Portuguese Air Force (Força Aérea Portuguesa, FAP) had publicly framed the F‑35A as the only realistic successor to its F‑16MLU Fighting Falcons.
In May 2025, the FAP’s chief of staff, General Cartaxo Alves, stated that Portugal had “no other choice” than the F‑35, and described the Rafale as less advanced than its American rival. Coming from the top uniformed official, the message sounded definitive.
The logic seemed clear. The F‑35 is widely treated as the de facto NATO standard for next-generation combat aircraft. Buying it usually signals close alignment with US strategy, promises interoperability with allies, and opens doors in Washington.
But political winds in Lisbon have shifted more than once. Earlier debates in Portugal had already been coloured by tensions over Donald Trump’s tough talk on NATO burden-sharing and his suggestion that the US might not defend allies who fail to spend enough on defence. That episode left a mark in several European capitals, including Lisbon.
Now, despite the earlier public commitment to the F‑35, Portuguese officials are said to be leaning toward the French Rafale, suggesting a partial U-turn that could have ripple effects across Europe’s defence landscape.
The Rafale is now widely viewed in Lisbon as a serious frontrunner, after months in which the F‑35 looked unbeatable.
Why the Rafale suddenly looks attractive
An “ITAR-free” advantage
One of the most sensitive points in the competition is regulation, not performance. The Rafale is marketed as “ITAR free”, meaning it does not rely on components subject to the US International Traffic in Arms Regulations (ITAR).
ITAR gives Washington a veto over the export or modification of many US-origin defence technologies. On a jet like the F‑35, it can limit what equipment is integrated, where maintenance is performed, and which third countries can be involved.
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For a mid-sized NATO country such as Portugal, that can feel constraining. Lisbon wants to stay closely aligned with the US, but also preserve room to tailor its air force to national needs and potential future partnerships.
The Rafale’s freedom from US export controls offers political autonomy that some European governments now value almost as much as raw firepower.
Cost, maintenance and real-world budgets
The financial angle is equally sharp. Defence planners in Lisbon face rising security demands while juggling tight public finances.
- The Rafale is generally cheaper to operate per flight hour than the F‑35A.
- It consumes less fuel and demands less complex maintenance infrastructure.
- It can be supported by an existing network of European suppliers and training centres.
The F‑35 is a stealth, sensor-heavy design that relies on sophisticated diagnostics, specialised coatings and a global supply chain tightly managed by the US and Lockheed Martin. Operating costs have been a recurring concern among early F‑35 customers.
For Portugal, which would be modernising a relatively small fleet, the lifetime bill for fuel, spare parts and upgrades may carry more weight than the headline sticker price of the aircraft themselves.
US pressure and NATO politics
No one in Washington is ready to watch the F‑35 slip away without a fight. The aircraft is more than just a product; it is a tool of influence.
Buying F‑35s typically means plugging into US-led training pipelines, software updates and data-sharing systems. That deepens interoperability, but also strengthens political bonds with the United States.
For Portugal, still reliant on US support for wider security guarantees, that pressure is real. Inside NATO, opting for the F‑35 is often read as a sign of loyalty, especially during a period of renewed great power competition and uncertainty around US politics.
If Lisbon returns to its initial path and selects the F‑35, it will reassure Washington and align Portugal with other F‑35 users such as Italy, the Netherlands and Norway.
Choosing the F‑35 would signal continuity with US-led defence planning; selecting the Rafale would signal a subtle tilt toward European strategic autonomy.
What France puts on the table
More than just jets: drones and future fighters
France is not selling only a combat aircraft. Officials in Paris are dangling a broader package that could include cooperation on drones and participation in the Future Combat Air System (SCAF in French).
SCAF aims to develop a new European air combat system around 2040, combining a next-generation fighter with swarming drones, networked sensors and advanced weapons. France, Germany and Spain are the core partners; Belgium is an observer.
Portugal’s entry into that circle, even in a modest role, would embed it more deeply in the European defence industrial base and reduce reliance on American technology over the long term.
A growing Rafale club in Europe
The Rafale already flies with the French, Greek and Croatian air forces, and Serbia has also signed up, making Portugal potentially the fourth European country to adopt the type in recent years.
| Country | Status | Geopolitical signal |
|---|---|---|
| Greece | In service | Countering Turkish air power in the eastern Mediterranean |
| Croatia | On order / delivery | Modernising post-Soviet-era capabilities |
| Serbia | Deal announced | Balancing between EU ties and Russian legacy hardware |
If Lisbon joins this club, France can claim another European success and reinforce the message that Europe can field a credible alternative to US equipment even within NATO.
The surprise outsider: Saab’s Gripen
Just as the Rafale seemed to be closing in on the F‑35, a third player has reappeared on the radar: Saab’s JAS 39E Gripen.
The Swedish jet is lighter and usually cheaper, both to buy and to operate. Reports in the Portuguese press suggest that a late pitch from Saab could reshape the competition if budget pressure becomes decisive.
Gripen is designed for small and mid-sized air forces that want advanced capabilities without the complexity and cost of a heavyweight aircraft. Brazil and several European countries already operate earlier variants.
For Portugal, Gripen might offer a “good enough” package at a lower financial burden, even if it lacks the political weight of the F‑35 or the deep industrial partnerships offered by France.
The late entry of Saab’s Gripen reminds Lisbon that choosing a fighter is never just a two-horse race between Washington and Paris.
What’s really at stake for Portugal
The aircraft choice will shape Portugal’s airpower for the next 30 to 40 years. It also signals where Lisbon sees its strategic future lying.
If it selects the F‑35, Portugal will bind itself tightly to US doctrines and upgrade cycles, gaining the benefits of a shared NATO platform and easy integration in allied operations.
If it turns to the Rafale, Portugal gains more control over export options, industrial offsets and future technology paths, while betting on Europe’s ability to maintain advanced capabilities independent of Washington.
A Gripen deal would be a different signal: a pragmatic financial decision prioritising cost and flexibility, and leaning toward a more dispersed set of partnerships, including with Sweden and perhaps Brazil.
Key concepts behind the headlines
Two technical ideas sit underneath this political drama and shape the long-term risk calculus for Lisbon.
ITAR and strategic autonomy. ITAR rules are designed to prevent sensitive US technology from spreading without Washington’s consent. For buyers, that can delay upgrades, block certain weapons, or complicate resale. Countries like France, and now potentially Portugal, see value in aircraft that sidestep those restrictions and allow independent decisions decades into the future.
Life-cycle cost vs. purchase price. Governments often announce the number of jets and the contract value. The more painful figure is the total bill over the aircraft’s entire service life: fuel, maintenance, spare parts, training and mid-life upgrades. A cheaper plane to fly can free up funds for missiles, drones or cyber capabilities that actually make the air force more effective in combat.
What this could mean for other European states
Other mid-sized NATO members are watching Lisbon’s debate closely. Countries with older F‑16s or MiG-29s will soon face similar choices. If Portugal goes with the Rafale and secures attractive industrial partnerships, that strengthens the argument for buying European when those states draw up their own tenders.
There is a possible chain reaction: more Rafale or Gripen customers would anchor additional maintenance hubs, training centres and supply lines inside the EU, which in turn makes future European projects like SCAF more viable. At the same time, a strong F‑35 win in Portugal would reinforce America’s grip on the continent’s combat aviation for another generation.
For now, Lisbon has not signed on the dotted line. But every signal that the Rafale edges ahead is being read not just as a Portuguese procurement story, but as a small test of how far Europe is really prepared to go in building its own defence autonomy while staying under NATO’s collective umbrella.
Originally posted 2026-03-12 23:50:07.